27 February 2011

Anwar Ibrahim & The Way Forward - Khoo Kay Peng

I would like to go beyond the issue of shadow cabinet. I would like to urge Anwar to take a deep look at his own leadership of Pakatan and PKR.



It takes a great courage for Dr Malcolm Puthucherry to write a soft criticism of Anwar Ibrahim's assertion that he does not need a shadow cabinet because Pakatan had set up parliamentary committees to mirror the ruling party's cabinet.

Malcolm wrote:

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s assertion that Pakatan Rakyat (PR) does not need a shadow cabinet is nothing less than an admission that the three-party pact he leads is very much less than the sum of its parts.

He added:

No, the real reason for not having a shadow cabinet which Anwar, ever the consummate political creature, refuses to tell the public is plain and simple: PR lacks the necessary cohesion and collective vision to come to an agreement between its member parties as to which ministerial portfolio ought to be entrusted to which party and the courage of conviction to announce it to the public. No amount of obfuscation by Anwar or any other PR leader can cover up that vulnerability of the pact.

Real proponents of a two-party system would have been able to view the issue in a broader perspective. It is sad to find the writer, Malcolm, being personally and viciously attacked by Anwar's hardcore supporters. By doing so, these supporters are missing an opportunity to urge Anwar himself to take a serious look at the gains and losses he has made since the last general election.

Malcolm's argument on the need of a shadow cabinet is legitimate and logical. It has been my fear that Pakatan coalition members may not have a post Putrajaya plan. What happens after winning the federal power? The ideological and policy differences may be easily diverted and avoided for the moment because these parties are bounded by a common aim to bring down the Barisan government.

It is impossible for us to be convinced that Pakatan is ready to govern if the Anwar-led Pakatan does not convey to us a comprehensive and detailed roadmap to governance.

It is illogical and desperate to suggest that any announcement now will render these shadow cabinet members to vicious attacks from Perkasa, Utusan and Umno. Any Pakatan politicians hope to be part of the next cabinet must be able to withstand any political onslaught. If they cannot take the heat now what make us think that they will be able to do so later?

The only Pakatan MP who is actively engaging the ruling government is MP Tony Pua. What have happened to the rest? Where's Pakatan alternative budget if there is a whole parliamentary committee mirroring the finance ministry? How can Pakatan reverse the fortune of PKFZ, Bakun dam and a host of other financially disastrous projects? I don't think these issues can be easily swept under the carpet.

I would like to go beyond the issue of shadow cabinet. I would like to urge Anwar to take a deep look at his own leadership of Pakatan and PKR.

He must address these issues if he is hoping to make bigger gains/inroads compared to 2008:

  1. Organisational weakness within PKR and Pakatan. Surely Anwar cannot walk on a moral high ground for what had happened to the defections in Perak, Penang & Selangor. Anwar must answer to the political chaos of Sabah PKR which has badly affected the coalition's chance in the next state elections.

  2. Anwar must initiate a sincere and honest audit of his own leadership. It has become rather meek and unconvincing to continue positioning the whole coalition's fate on Anwar's leadership alone. Anwar's own political star is waning. The coalition needs to offer something more and something new to complement Anwar's oratory ability and personal charm alone. Anwar needs to facilitate and groom a list of next line leaders who are capable to take over from him. No one is indispensable and Anwar has appeared weary and tired compared to the 1999 reformasi movement. Age is a contributing factor. Next is complacency in his own party ranks.

  3. Anwar must seriously ask himself if he had contributed to the dispersion and disintegration of the opposition front. Anwar was also a contributor to the creation of UBF, Kita, MCLM and others. If he had not being distracted by the latest sodomy scandal, a lack of new ideas to organize his party better and possibly poor decision to back some wrong individuals in his party these new forces would have been created because there is no real reason for their existence or need.

  4. Caught in the web of sodomy scandal 2, Anwar should have made some strategic decision to initiate a leadership transition in his party and the newly minted coalition. I am not saying that we should use the sodomy case to push down Anwar. But Anwar should know who the authority is up against. A way to divert the attention away from him which may slow down the progress of his party and the coalition to build on the 2008 gains is to divert the target and attention away from his leadership of PKR and Pakatan. New leaders should have been groomed to take over his reforms agenda and work on strengthening the party and coalition.

It is still not too late for Anwar to rethink his own political strategy and positioning.

Meanwhile, I hope pro-Anwar supporters would react more kindly to criticism. By doing what they did to Malcolm is not going to set Pakatan supporters apart from the Barisan's.

25 February 2011

Perdana Menteri Bayangan yang Tidak Ada Kabinet Bayangan - Malcolm Puthucherry

Bagi para pengundi, apa yang mereka tidak mahu berlaku adalah satu kerajaan baru di Putrajaya yang awal-awal lagi akan mula bergaduh sengit dan bertelingkah sesama sendiri tentang siapakah yang akan diamanahkan untuk memimpin mana satu kementerian. Sekiranya terdapat satu kabinet bayangan, itu sedikit sebanyak akan memberi satu jaminan kepada rakyat bahawa pertelingkahan sedemikian rupa tidak akan berlaku. Itulah kelebihannya sekiranya terdapat kabinet bayangan.
oleh Dr. Malcolm Puthucherry melalui e-mel



Akhirnya kebenaran terbongkar juga – untuk sesiapa yang sudi melihatnya.

Kenyataan Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim bahawa Pakatan Rakyat (PR) tidak memerlukan kabinet bayangan tidak lain dan tidak bukan adalah satu pengakuan bahawa gandingan tiga parti yang diketuainya adalah satu permuafakatan yang lemah, tidak utuh dan tidak mantap.

Beliau memberi alasan jawatankuasa parlimen PR yang ada sekarang berfungsi sebagai kabinet bayangan dan sudah memadai. Oleh demikian, ujar beliau, tidak perlu ada kabinet bayangan.

Jelas itu satu alasan yang amat lemah untuk menutup sebab sebenarnya. Tidak ada siapa yang tahu apakah jawatankuasa parlimen PR yang wujud dan siapakah ahli-ahlinya. Begitulah keadaannya dua tahun selepas jawatankuasa-jawatankuasa itu dibentuk dan itulah tandanya jawatankuasa tersebut tidak berfungsi dengan baik sebagai kabinet bayangan.

Apa yang enggan dinyatakan oleh Anwar kepada umum dan sebab sebenar kenapa tidak ada kabinet bayangan adalah PR tidak mempunyai keutuhan dan visi bersama yang diperlukan demi mencapai persetujuan tentang pembahagian kementerian-kementerian antara tiga parti tersebut. Mereka juga tiada keberanian atau keyakinan untuk mengumumkan secara terbuka apa-apa persetujuan tentang pembahagian kabinet bayangan.

Bagi para pengundi, apa yang mereka tidak mahu berlaku adalah satu kerajaan baru di Putrajaya yang awal-awal lagi akan mula bergaduh sengit dan bertelingkah sesama sendiri tentang siapakah yang akan diamanahkan untuk memimpin mana satu kementerian. Sekiranya terdapat satu kabinet bayangan, itu sedikit sebanyak akan memberi satu jaminan kepada rakyat bahawa pertelingkahan sedemikian rupa tidak akan berlaku. Itulah kelebihannya sekiranya terdapat kabinet bayangan.

Masalah besar yang dihadapi oleh PR adalah sekiranya langkah diambil sekarang untuk membentuk kabinet bayangan, pergaduhan besar sesama sendiri itu berkemungkinan tinggi akan meletus. Ini seterusnya akan memalapkan apa-apa peluang untuk dipilih sebagai kerajaan baru dalam pilihanraya umum yang akan datang.

Jadi dilemanya adalah: tidak ada kabinet bayangan sekarang, pengundi tidak akan memberi undi sebab khuatir akan bergaduh kemudian nanti; tetapi jika dibuat kabinet bayangan sekarang, pergaduhan akan berlaku sekarang dan ini mungkin mengakibatkan pengundi tidak tertarik untuk memberi undi. Seperti lazimnya, Anwar menyelesaikan masalah dengan menyapukannya ke bawah tikar dan berharap orang lain tidak perasan. Begitulah cara beliau menangani isu ini.

Selepas menjanjikan beberapa perubahan yang akan mereka buat dalan satu jangka waktu yang tetap sekiranya menang pilihanraya umum, ketiga-tiga parti pembangkang tersebut gagal pula untuk menjangka satu soalan lanjut yang lojik ditanya oleh para pengundi. Siapakah di antara kamu yang akan memikul amanah untuk menjayakan mana satu perubahan yang dijanji? Itu satu soalan yang munasabah oleh kerana kejayaan langkah perubahan itu banyak bergantung kepada siapakah yang memikul tanggungjawab langsung untuk menjayakannya. Itulah sebabnya satu kabinet bayangan merupakan satu keperluan demi memberi keyakinan kepada janji-janji semasa berkempen. Para pemimpin parti pembangkang, bagaimanapun, seolah selesa membuat kerja separuh jalan.

Sudah sekian lama, PKR, PAS dan DAP menjaja kata janji, "Berikanlah kami hak membentuk kerajaan, akan kami selesaikan segalanya, semuanya akan menjadi OK". Laungan itu kian kurang meyakinkan dan kurang menarik. Ketiga-tiga parti tersebut nampak gayanya tidak berkemampuan untuk menawarkan sesuatu yang lebih dari itu, dan tidak berupaya untuk menjadi satu gabungan padu dan mantap yang bersedia untuk memerintah negara. Mungkin kelebihan yang boleh mereka tawarkan cuma satu: mereka bukan BN. Itu sahaja. Itu bukanlah satu situasi yang sangat menyelerakan bagi para pengundi.

Bagi Anwar pula, keberanian beliau dalam menonjolkan dirinya sebagai perdana menteri bayangan tidak pula ditandingi oleh keberanian yang serupa dalam apa-apa usaha rumit untuk membentuk kabinet bayangan. Keganjilan situasi di mana perdana menteri bayangan tidak didokongi oleh kabinet bayangan tidak pula merunsingkan beliau. Begitulah membaranya cita-cita peribadi seseorang itu. Janji beliau kepada negara sekarang ini kemungkinan tidak berubah banyak dari masa beliau di dalam UMNO dan menjawat Timbalan Perdana Menteri iaitu "Jadikan saya perdana menteri, akan saya selesaikan segalanya, semuanya akan menjadi OK".



DR MALCOLM PUTHUCHERRY

(Diterjemah dari artikel asal dalam Bahasa Inggeris)

24 February 2011

A Shadow Prime Minister with no Shadow Cabinet - Malcolm Puthucherry

No, the real reason for not having a shadow cabinet which Anwar, ever the consummate political creature, refuses to tell the public is plain and simple: PR lacks the necessary cohesion and collective vision to come to an agreement between its member parties as to which ministerial portfolio ought to be entrusted to which party and the courage of conviction to announce it to the public. No amount of obfuscation by Anwar or any other PR leader can cover up that vulnerability of the pact.
by Dr. Malcolm Puthucherry via e-mail



The truth is finally laid bare – for anyone who cares to look.

Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim's assertion that Pakatan Rakyat (PR) does not need a shadow cabinet is nothing less than an admission that the three-party pact he leads is very much less than the sum of its parts.

He offers the excuse that PR's parliamentary committees have been adequately performing the same role as a shadow cabinet, thus making the latter unnecessary. Well, no one is buying that for a second. Hardly anyone offhand can rattle off the names of some of those committees and their members. That they remain so obscure more than two years after being formed tells you what a poor substitute they have been to a shadow cabinet.

No, the real reason for not having a shadow cabinet which Anwar, ever the consummate political creature, refuses to tell the public is plain and simple: PR lacks the necessary cohesion and collective vision to come to an agreement between its member parties as to which ministerial portfolio ought to be entrusted to which party and the courage of conviction to announce it to the public. No amount of obfuscation by Anwar or any other PR leader can cover up that vulnerability of the pact.

For the voters, what they don't want see, were a new government to be set up in Putrajaya, is for the winning component parties to descend into a fractious scrimmage over who gets which ministry. A shadow cabinet thus offers reasonable assurance that such a scenario would not come to pass.

PR's problem is that the unseemly scrimmage may well occur if they try to cobble together a shadow cabinet now and thus put a massive dent to any electoral prospect of forming a new government. A chicken-and-egg situation, if ever there was one, for which the typical Anwarite solution is to sweep it under the carpet and pray that people won't notice.

Having promised the specific reforms it will undertake within a specified timeframe, the three opposition parties have failed to see that the next logical question voters will ask is: which among them will be assigned the task of accomplishing which reform? A fair question to ask as in reality successful completion of a task hinges on which individual is held directly accountable for it. Thus, the necessity of a shadow cabinet to back up campaign promises. Opposition party leaders however appear to have settled for thinking in half measures.

For far too long, PKR, PAS and DAP have been peddling the line, "Put us in government, we'll sort things out, everything will be OK". Well, that is wearing a little thin. The three parties do not seem to have been able to go beyond this and show that they can be a cohesive and viable coalition fit and ready for government. The only thing going for them is that their adversary is BN. Slim pickings indeed for the voters.

As for Anwar, his boldness in anointing himself the shadow prime minister is not matched by any similar boldness in the arduous task of putting together a shadow cabinet – the oddity of a shadow prime minister without a shadow cabinet does not seem to bother him. Such is his ambition. Presumably, his promise to the country remains unchanged from the time he was an Umno deputy prime minister: make me prime minister, I'll sort things out, everything will be OK.



DR. MALCOLM PUTHUCHERRY

Perbicaraan Liwat: Dahulu dan Sekarang - Kulop Miko

Ini satu hal lagi. Dahulu, Mahathir dibenci ramai sebab dia dikata bapak konspirasi. Sekarang ni siapa bapak konspirasinya? Kes bermula semasa Abdullah Badawi masih PM. Diakah kepalanya? Sekarang dia bukan PM lagi, Najib yang PM. Bolehkah konspirasi dipass-pass seperti bolasepak daripada satu PM ke satu PM? Mungkinkah apa yang berlaku sekarang bukan konspirasi? Heeeeesh... tak tahulah teman.
oleh Kulop Miko melalui e-mel



Perbicaraan mahkamah kes liwat Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim (DSAI) sedang lancar berlangsung sekarang. Setiap hari teman baca di internet lapurannya. Suratkhabar tak main dah. Teman tak sentuh pun suratkhabar sebab tak boleh harap langsung. Berat sebelah bebenor, bak kata orang
Perak.

Masa kes liwat DSAI yang pertama dulu, rajin juga teman pergi ke mahkamah. Memang susah nak dapat masuk ke bilik mahkamah. Kalau tak datang awal, jawabnya tak dapat masuklah sebab barisan orang yang menunggu nak masuk dah panjang dan ruang terhad. Ada kawan-kawan teman sanggup tidur di perkarangan mahkamah untuk masuk keesokan harinya. Jadi teman lebih kerap habiskan masa berlegar-legar di kawasan Masjid Jamek, tunggu DSAI masuk dan keluar bilik mahkamah sebab nak lambai dan jerit 'Reformasi' kat dia. Itulah sokongan moral namanya. Memang ramai orang masa itu. Boleh dikatakan setiap hari macam itu. Tujuannya tak lain dari nak beri sokongan moral kepada seorang insan yang pada pandangan kami sedang dizalimi.

Jadi teman hairan jugak baca semasa perbicaraan kes liwat 2 DSAI, tidak ramai orang yang hadir. Nampak gayanya tidak lagi seperti dulu. Lapuran portal berita pun sering menyatakan galeri awam tidak dipenuhi penuntun. Kenapa boleh jadi begitu? Orang tak mahu beri sokongan moral lagikah? Teman pun termenung: apa yang berbeza, apa yang sama antara liwat 1 dan liwat 2?

Dahulu DSAI di dalam penjara, tidak dibenarkan ikat jamin bagi satu pertuduhan yang lazimnya diberi ikat jamin. Sebab itu, ketara sungguh kezaliman yang dilakukan ke atas DSAI. Dan siapakah kepala konspirasi zalim itu? Rata-rata dikatakan Mahathirlah dalangnya. Jadi teman pun selain dari nak beri sokongan moral kepada DSAI, ada insentif tambahan untuk berkumpul di luar mahkamah: untuk memberi isyarat biadap dan kurang sopan kepada Mahathir sebab ada khabar yang mengatakan lagi ramai orang berkumpul luar mahkamah, lagi Mahathir sakit hati. Haaa... biar dia sakit hati banyak-banyak!

Sekarang DSAI tidak dalam penjara. Dia Ketua Pembangkang di Parlimen, bebas bergerak di mana-mana. Mungkin sebab itu ramai orang rasa tak perlu hadir atau berkumpul di mahkamah untuk beri sokongan moral. Lagipun, kalau orang ramai atau sedikit di mahkamah, jadi halkah kepada Najib? Rasa-rasanya dia tak ambil kisah pun orang berkumpul atau tidak untuk memberi sokongan moral kepada Anwar.

Ini satu hal lagi. Dahulu, Mahathir dibenci ramai sebab dia dikata bapak konspirasi. Sekarang ni siapa bapak konspirasinya? Kes bermula semasa Abdullah Badawi masih PM. Diakah kepalanya? Sekarang dia bukan PM lagi, Najib yang PM. Bolehkah konspirasi dipass-pass seperti bolasepak daripada satu PM ke satu PM? Mungkinkah apa yang berlaku sekarang bukan konspirasi? Heeeeesh... tak tahulah teman. Yang nyata perasaan meluat orang ramai kepada Mahathir tidak ada pula kepada perdana menteri yang ada sekarang. Mungkin juga itu salah satu sebab tak ramai orang di mahkamah.

Satu perkara lagi yang teman bingung dan hairan pasal kes liwat 2 ni: kenapalah Anwar biarkan jantan-jantan muda tinggi handsome ni berkeliaran di sekitarnya? Kalau dulu dah jadi mangsa fitnah hubungan intim dengan orang-orang sedemikian, bukankah lebih baik berwaspada dan elakkan dari orang macam itu menjadi pembantu pejabat lah, personal assistant lah, pembancuh kopi lah. Ini tidak. Dilantik orang macam si Saiful tu pula jadi staf pejabat. Bukan tu saja – dibawa pula ke hulu hilir luar negeri. Tak serik-serik kah Anwar ni? Haaa... tengok. Sekarang apa dah jadi?

Satu lagi pasal perbicaraan sekarang ni yang buat teman tercengang: ada pula sesi soaljawab dengan saksi yang tertutup. 'In camera' bak kata orang putih. Maksudnya, tidak boleh dilapurkan oleh media atau dituntuni oleh orang awam. Haaa... sahlah ini satu konspirasi, teman pikirkan. Banyak perkara yang pihak pendakwa tak mahu orang ramai tahu dan mahu disorokkan.

Alangkah terkejut beruknya teman bila dapat tahu yang minta sesi 'in camera' adalah ketua pihak pembelaan, Karpal Singh, the Tiger of Jelutong himself! Sungguh aneh dan mengecewakan. Apa pula yang hendak ditutup atau disorok oleh pihak pembelaan? Apatah lagi sesi yang tidak dibenarkan dilapur adalah soaljawab saksi utama pihak pendakwa iaitu Saiful sendiri. Kenapa Karpal bertindak sedemikian? Cukup lama teman dan ramai lagi tertunggu-tunggu untuk dia menyoal Saiful di hadapan mata dunia melalui soalan-soalannya untuk memburaikan rahsia busuk Saiful bahawa tuduhan dia terhadap Anwar adalah rekaan semata-mata. Itu semua tinggal fantasi.... sungguh malang.

Dan juga menghampakan. Oleh sebab sesi 'in camera' itu, banyak fakta-fakta kes yang dibongkar berkenaan apa yang telah berlaku tidak diketahui umum. Teman baca keterangan dari doktor-doktor, pakar DNA dan kimia dan sebagainya dan tak tahu hujung pangkal jawapan yang mereka beri. OK lah, banyak benda teknikal yang mereka sentuh. Tapi tergaru-garu kepala jugak teman bila terbaca sampel DNA diambil dari dada Saiful. Haaa...kalau dah liwat macam mana boleh sampai DNA ke dada kawan tu pulak? Hairan... cukup hairan.

Pernah teman bertanyakan seorang doktor kenalan teman: macam mana pula kes ini boleh dibawa ke peringkat pendakwaan sekiranya lapuran doktor dah mengatakan "tidak ada tanda konklusif penetrasi telah berlaku"? Bukankah itu bermakna liwat telah tidak berlaku?

Jawab doktor itu: jangan terlalu gopoh membuat kesimpulan sedemikian. "Tidak ada tanda konklusif penetrasi telah berlaku" tidak bermakna "Ada tanda konklusif penetrasi tidak berlaku". Terus beliau, "Sekiranya sebutir gelas tidak ada tanda jari, pakar yang memeriksa paling lebih akan lapurkan tidak ada tanda konklusif gelas telah disentuh. Adakah itu bermakna sah bahawa gelas tidak disentuh? Sudah tentu tidak sebab ia boleh disentuh dengan cara yang tidak meninggalkan tanda jari seperti memakai sarung tangan atau menggunakan pengepit dan lain-lain alat. Itu hanya boleh dimaklumkan oleh pakar sekiranya disoal dengan lebih lanjut dalam mahkamah, misalannya. Setakat lapuran awal, etika professional membenarkan dia menulis sesuatu yang tidak akan mempengaruhi siasatan, iaitu sesuatu yang neutral seperti "tidak ada tanda konklusif gelas telah disentuh".

Oh begitu, jawab teman. Tawar hati teman nak pergi ke mahkamah sekarang.



KULOP MIKO

22 February 2011

Saranan kepada Pakatan Rakyat untuk PRK Merlimau dan Kerdau - Syed Ahmad

PAS dijangka akan meletakkan calon di kedua-dua PRK tersebut. Keupayaan PAS akan teruji untuk menjalankan dua kempen pilihanraya serentak. Jentera dan dana yang terhad terpaksa diagihkan kepada dua kawasan. Sebaliknya, UMNO/BN yang mempunyai sumber kewangan tanpa had dan jabatan-jabatan serta agensi-agensi kerajaan untuk dikerah sebagai jentera pilihanrayanya tidak akan terjejas dengan keputusan SPR tersebut.
oleh Syed Ahmad Syed Ibrahim melalui e-mel



Keputusan Suruhanjaya Pilihan Raya untuk mengadakan pilihan raya kecil serentak bagi DUN Merlimau di Melaka dan DUN Kerdau di Pahang boleh ditafsirkan sebagai satu langkah untuk memberi kelebihan kepada UMNO/BN.

PAS dijangka akan meletakkan calon di kedua-dua PRK tersebut. Keupayaan PAS akan teruji untuk menjalankan dua kempen pilihanraya serentak. Jentera dan dana yang terhad terpaksa diagihkan kepada dua kawasan. Sebaliknya, UMNO/BN yang mempunyai sumber kewangan tanpa had dan jabatan-jabatan serta agensi-agensi kerajaan untuk dikerah sebagai jentera pilihanrayanya tidak akan terjejas dengan keputusan SPR tersebut.

Pucuk pimpinan Pakatan Rakyat wajib menggubal satu tindakan untuk mematahkan kelebihan BN yang diraih melalui keputusan SPR itu. Cadangan untuk mengagihkan calon antara PAS dan PKR untuk kedua-dua PRK tersebut harus diberi pertimbangan yang wajar.

DUN Merlimau ditakrifkan sebagai kawasan bercampur, di mana terdapat peratusan pengundi-pengundi bukan Melayu yang signifikan iaitu 35% (Cina 21%, India 14%). Jika diikut kelaziman, PKR mewakili PR di kawasan bercampur. Cabang PKR Jasin berupaya untuk menggerakkan satu kempen pilihanraya yang berkesan. Tambahan pula, PKR mempunyai Shamsul Iskandar Akin, seorang anak tempatan, yang berpotensi untuk menjadi seorang calon yang berwibawa.

Sumber dan kekuatan PKR akan dapat ditumpukan kepada satu kawasan sahaja. Peluang PKR untuk memenangi PRK Merlimau adalah lebih cerah berbanding dengan PAS.

DUN Kerdau pula ditakrif sebagai kawasan majoriti Melayu oleh sebab 89% pengundi adalah orang Melayu. Sekali lagi jika diikut kelaziman, PAS mewakili PR di kawasan majoriti Melayu. Pada PRU 12 yang lepas PAS mewakili PR untuk kerusi tersebut. UPU Kuala Krau dan UPU-UPU bersekitaran di Termerloh, Mentakab dan Jerantut berupaya untuk membina satu jentera pilihanraya yang mantap dan berkesan. PAS juga mempunyai bank undi (vote bank) di empat rancangan FELDA di kawasan tersebut.

Jentera dan dana PAS akan dapat ditumpukan kepada PRK Kerdau sahaja. Berdasarkan sentimen politik tanah air sekarang, PAS dijangka akan menang dengan mudah, Insya-Allah.

Meletakkan calon PKR di Merlimau dan calon PAS di Kerdau merupakan tindakan strategik yang bijak oleh Pakatan Rakyat bagi memenangi kedua-dua PRK tersebut. Pengorbanan PAS untuk memberi peluang kepada calon PKR di Merlimau akan meningkatkan semangat setiakawan antara parti-parti komponen PR.



SYED AHMAD SYED IBRAHIM

Sokongan Orang Melayu Kepada PAS Menurun? - Nik Adha

Kesangsian terhadap persefahaman antara PAS dan DAP bukan faktor utama yang mendorong kemerosotan sokongan orang Melayu kepada PR. Ramai orang Melayu telah menerima realiti tentang perlunya kerjasama dengan DAP untuk menamatkan hegemoni UMNO/BN. Pengundi-pengundi Melayu terutama yang di atas pagar mula beralih dari menyokong PR kerana bosan dengan permasalahan demi permasalahan yang melanda PKR. Malah ramai penyokong-penyokong tegar PR mula mempersoalkan keberkesanan PKR dalam memimpin pakatan tersebut.
oleh Nik Adha Nik Kamil melalui e-mel



Berdasarkan kepada keputusan pilihan raya kecil Bagan Pinang, Manek Urai, Galas dan Tenang, banyak pihak telah membuat kesimpulan bahawa sokongan pengundi Melayu kepada PAS telah menurun. Faktor utama yang dikaitkan dengan kehilangan sokongan ini ialah ramai orang Melayu tidak senang dengan pakatan antara PAS dan DAP. PAS dilihat sebagai parti yang telah banyak berkorban demi pakatan tersebut.

Tanggapan ini telah merunsingkan PAS sehingga terpaksa menganjurkan sebuah konvensyen nasional pada Sabtu lepas di Shah Alam, untuk menangkis tanggapan tersebut. PAS seolah-olah menerima kenyataan bahawa sokongan orang Melayu telah menurun. Respon PAS kepada isu tersebut berkisar kepada manipulasi media arus perdana milik UMNO/BN. Media arus perdana dituduh sebagai pencacai untuk melemahkan persafahaman antara PAS dan DAP.

Benarkah sokongan orang Melayu kepada PAS telah menurun?

Daripada kajian terperinci keputusan-keputusan PRK kebelakangan ini dan jika dibandingkan dengan keputusan PRU-12 sebagai kayu ukuran, nyata sokongan orang Melayu kepada PAS tidak berubah. Yang ketara ialah sokongan orang Melayu kepada Pakatan Rakyat telah merudum. Pengundi-pengundi Melayu yang memilih PAS pada PRU-12 masih mengundi PAS pada PRK-PRK tersebut. Akan tetapi ramai pengundi Melayu, terutama pengundi 'atas pagar', yang telah mengundi PR pada PRU-12 telah memberi undi mereka kepada UMNO/BN lantas membawa kepada kekalahan calon-calon PAS di PRK-PRK tersebut.

Jadi, mengapa orang Melayu kian menolak PR?

Kesangsian terhadap persefahaman antara PAS dan DAP bukan faktor utama yang mendorong kemerosotan sokongan orang Melayu kepada PR. Ramai orang Melayu telah menerima realiti tentang perlunya kerjasama dengan DAP untuk menamatkan hegemoni UMNO/BN.

Pengundi-pengundi Melayu terutama yang di atas pagar mula beralih dari menyokong PR kerana bosan dengan permasalahan demi permasalahan yang melanda PKR. Malah ramai penyokong-penyokong tegar PR mula mempersoalkan keberkesanan PKR dalam memimpin pakatan tersebut.

Kredibiliti PKR kian terhakis. PKR dilihat seperti UMNO yang berbaju baru. Insiden seperti wakil-wakil rakyat PKR keluar parti, proses pemilihan parti yang pincang dan kes liwat Anwar Ibrahim telah menyebabkan PKR hilang fokus dalam meneruskan momentum tsunami 2008. Kerajaan negeri Selangor yang dipimpin oleh PKR juga gagal menyerlah sebagai kerajaan yang berwibawa. Faktor-faktor ini telah membuat rakyat mempersoalkan Anwar yang telah banyak menabur janji tetapi tidak ditunaikan.

PAS, sebaliknya, telah bergiat lebih mantap dan berkesan sejak kejayaan besar pada PRU-12. Aktiviti-aktiviti politik seperti ceramah, forum, konvensyen dan perhimpunan bertambah sejak 2008. Perhimpunan Pemuda PAS di Kedah pada Sabtu lepas berjaya melibatkan 30,000 orang ahli. Kempen-kempen anjuran PAS seperti Kempen Anti Saman Ekor boleh dijadikan sebuah gerakan rakyat. PAS lebih prihatin dengan peranan media baru dan sedang menggembelingkan semua saluran-saluran di dunia siber seperti internet, facebook, twitter dan seumpamanya untuk kegiatan politik. Semua usaha-usaha ini telah meningkatkan sokongan orang Melayu kepada PAS. Hasilnya akan dapat dilihat pada PRU-13 akan datang.

Kejayaan PAS pada PRU-13, walau bagaimanapun, bergantung kepada rakan-rakan dalam PR. Faktor PKR yang telah hilang populariti harus diambilkira. PAS dan DAP terpaksa menggalas bebanan PKR yang bermasalah. Justeru, dalam usaha PR untuk menyaingi BN, PAS dan DAP mesti mengorak langkah untuk mewujudkan lanskap politik nasional yang berpaksikan Pakatan Rakyat yang benar-benar berwibawa.

Secara praktikalnya kita berterima kasih atas sumbangan Anwar dan PKR dalam mengemudi PR, tetapi sudah sampai masanya PAS mengambil alih kepimpinan dari PKR untuk memimpin PR dengan lebih berkesan. PKR harus menerima realiti dan secara berlapang dada untuk berundur demi kesinambungan perjuangan PR.



NIK ADHA NIK KAMIL

21 February 2011

Under pressure to wrap up seat talks - Zefry Dahalan

Insiders say they don’t relish the thought of having Azmin negotiate for PKR if Anwar goes to jail.



Pakatan Rakyat insiders expect a lot of acrimony among the parties of the alliance in their negotiations for seats to contest in the coming general election unless the horse trading is settled before Anwar Ibrahim goes to jail.

They say Anwar is second to none when it comes to negotiating skills, but they fear that it is almost certain that he will be convicted for sodomy, given the Najib administration’s determination to put him out of action.

That means, according to the insiders, PKR deputy president Azmin Ali will take over as chief negotiator for his party, and they say Azmin does not command much respect from other Pakatan leaders.

Indeed, he has already angered some PAS leaders with a recent statement accusing the Islamic party of eyeing seats that PKR claims as its own.

PAS secretary-general Mustafa Ali, for instance, has effectively told him to shut up, according to the daily Sinar Harian.

Anwar, said a PAS source, must “sort out the seat allocation issues” before the end of his sodomy trial, which is expected to be wrapped up next month.

The sources also said the Pakatan leadership had divided the electoral seats into three categories.

Won seats are those that the opposition won in the 2008 election. The parties that won them will contest them again in the next election.

Popular seats are seats that the opposition lost in 2008, but where the candidates who stood there are popular and have increased their grassroots support since. It will be status quo for these seats as
well.

The rest are open seats. Here, at least two parties in Pakatan have equal chances and these are the seats that will come under intense negotiation.

It is not known how Pakatan will treat the seats currently occupied by defectors from PKR and DAP.

A senior PAS leader told FMT that he felt these seats should go to the parties that won them in 2008. “A party should not be penalised for the irresponsible behaviour of an individual,” he said.

18 February 2011

Azmin, Jangan Biadap. - Wan Nasuha

Rasa sedih pula oleh kerana Azmin telah memilih untuk mengutarakan satu isu sensitif secara terbuka melalui media, bukan dalam mesyuarat pemimpin tertinggi Pakatan Rakyat. Seolah-olah dengan jawatan Timbalan Presiden yang baru dimenangi, beliau berhak mengeluarkan arahan kepada pucuk pimpinan PR.
oleh Wan Nasuha Wan Hassan melalui e-mel



Rasa terharu apabila membaca kenyataan Azmin Ali mengenai peruntukan kerusi dalam Pakatan Rakyat. Rasa lucu pun ada. Rasa sedih pun ada. Menurut Azmin, formula PAS akan bertanding di kawasan majoriti Melayu, DAP di kawasan majoriti Cina dan PKR di kawasan bercampur tidak boleh digunapakai lagi kerana PAS dikatakan mahu bertanding di kawasan bercampur.

Rasa terharu oleh kerana sebenarnya kumpulan sasaran Azmin bukan ahli-ahli PAS atau DAP tetapi ahli-ahli PKR. Azmin cuba menggunakan isu peruntukan kerusi, suatu persefahaman asas di antara para pemimpin PR, untuk menonjolkan dirinya sebagai Timbalan Presiden. 'Grandstanding' bak kata orang putih. Jawatan yang disandang beliau adalah hasil daripada proses pemilihan yang pincang dan beliau dipilih oleh hanya 9% daripada jumlah ahli-ahli PKR. Beliau sedar yang beliau hanya seorang Timbalan Presiden 'itik tempang' (lame-duck). Untuk menutup 'inferiority complex' ini, terpaksalah bercakap mengenai satu isu besar seperti isu peruntukan kerusi.

Rasa lucu oleh kerana Azmin masih dalam sindrom penafian. Hakikatnya, sejak 2008 telah ramai wakil rakyat PKR meninggalkan parti tetapi tiada seorang pun wakil rakyat PAS yang berbuat demikian. Alasan yang diberi oleh Anwar Ibrahim ialah ramai calon PKR pada PRU 12 adalah bidan terjun yang ditangkap muat. Kalau dah sebegitu ketandusan calon, kenapa masih gelojoh mahu bertanding di kawasan bercampur? Berilah peluang kepada PAS yang mempunyai proses pemilihan calon yang lebih teliti dan rapi.

Rasa sedih pula oleh kerana Azmin telah memilih untuk mengutarakan satu isu sensitif secara terbuka melalui media, bukan dalam mesyuarat pemimpin tertinggi Pakatan Rakyat. Seolah-olah dengan jawatan Timbalan Presiden yang baru dimenangi, beliau berhak mengeluarkan arahan kepada pucuk pimpinan PR. Bayangkan jika Anwar dipenjarakan atau lari ke luar negara, mampukah Azmin memainkan peranan seperti yang dimainkan oleh Anwar dalam PR sekarang? Wajarkah dia berbuat sedemikian? Sanggupkah PAS dan DAP mengikut telunjuk seorang pemimpin 'itek tempang'?

Sudah tiba masanya untuk PAS dan DAP mengkaji satu pakatan tanpa PKR. Realitinya, sokongan orang bukan Melayu kepada PAS kian bertambah, begitu juga ramai orang Melayu telah menerima DAP. Kawasan-kawasan bercampur boleh diagih antara PAS dan DAP. Hanya dengan strategi sedemikian dapat PR memenangi PRU 13.

Sekian. Wasallam.



WAN NASUHA BT. WAN HASSAN

PAS eyes mixed seats, fireworks in Pakatan - Zefry Dahalan

Finding it difficult to break Umno's dominance in Malay areas, PAS is now encroaching into PKR and DAP's territories.



With the 13th general election looming, fireworks are expected between Pakatan Rakyat component parties regarding seat negotiations.

According to sources, this is mainly because PAS is expected to make two demands.

The first, said a source, is the Islamic party will request for seats contested by former PKR reps who have since quit the party to become independents.

The seats on PAS’ radar screen are Kulim Bandar Baru, Padang Serai, Bagan Serai and Bayan Baru, whose incumbents crossed swords with the PKR leadership and put in their resignation letters.

“The PAS grassroots are arguing that it will be better to let PAS contest these seats since PKR representatives jump ship easily,” the source told FMT.

The second demand, he said, will be mixed-populated seats contested by PKR during the 12th general election.

Even though PAS contested in several racially-mixed urban seats such as the Shah Alam and Kota Raja parliamentary seats, PKR contested in the majority of them during the last election.

This time around, PAS is expected to demand more of such seats as the party has found it difficult to break Umno’s monopoly in rural areas, except in Kelantan and Kedah.

Remember what happened in 1959?

Meanwhile, a PKR MP, who declined to be named, asked PAS not to get “overly emotional” regarding the leaders who left the party.

“Yes, we admit that these leaders let us down. But it’s unfair to deny PKR the chance to contest those seats again based on such incidents.

“PAS must understand that it too went through a similar crisis in the early stages of the party’s formation during the 1950s.

“Remember how the Terengganu PAS state government collapsed despite the party winning 13 state seats in the 1959 general election? This was because three PAS reps joined Umno with another three reps from Parti Negara,” he told FMT.

He said that PKR has undergone a “cleansing process” of problematic leaders and will bounce back stronger in the next general election.

“So PAS should not use this as an excuse to try and snatch our seats,” he added.

PAS leaders, namely its deputy president Nasharuddin Mat Isa, have urged state PAS leaders to contest in mixed areas, where Chinese voters are the deciding factor.

‘Creating fissures in Pakatan’

Commenting on this, a state PAS leader, who wished to remain anonymous, said Nasharuddin has been “roaming” nationwide, attending seminars, to spread this message.

“He has asked us to push for such seats either from PKR or DAP in order to increase PAS’ seat tally both at the federal and state levels.

“Nasharuddin believes that PAS can win these seats easily because the Chinese totally reject Barisan Nasional (BN),” he said.

However, the PAS state leader is uncomfortable with the idea, warning that it can cause friction between the Pakatan parties.

“Who is going to fight in rural areas if everybody wants to contest in urban and semi-urban seats?” he asked.

Instead of encroaching into the traditional domains of PKR and DAP, the PAS leader suggested that his party leadership formulate new strategies to break Umno’s dominance in Malay majority areas.

“Nasharuddin’s suggestion is a step backwards. I call it a short cut to success,” he said.

He also questioned if Nasharuddin has an ulterior motive since he is one of the main figures in the unity government proposal with Umno, which was shot down by PAS’ spiritual leader Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat.

“Perhaps Nasharuddin is attempting to drive a wedge between the Pakatan parties. I believe that the unity government idea is still brewing despite the leaders involved denying it,” he added.

On the same note, he said there still can be a win-win situation if PKR agrees to give up or swap seats with PAS.

“It is okay if the seats belong to us and we gave it to PKR, but the party failed to make inroads for two consecutive general elections or if the seats are swapped,” he added.

Losing Indian support: Pakatan must blame itself - Athi Shankar

The coalition should not pin the blame on its political rival BN, says a DAP leader.



Pakatan Rakyat should blame itself for the loss of Indian support and not others, said a local DAP leader.

Jalan Bagan Luar DAP branch head G Asoghan said Pakatan should get rid of its denial syndrome and stop blaming Barisan Nasional (BN).

“Pakatan should reflect on whether it had done enough to maintain the overwhelming Indian support shown for the coalition in the 2008 general election,” he told FMT.

He blamed the Pakatan state governments in Penang, Kedah and Selangor, as well as the coalition’s top leaders and Indian elected representatives for the decline.

Pakatan governments, he said, should have implemented various programmes within its administrative powers and financial capacities to benefit the Indian community.

He pointed out that Pakatan should have used state powers on land matters to resolve the landless status of Tamil schools, Hindu temples, burial grounds, crematoriums and Indian residential areas.

Instead of this, he said, Pakatan governments demolished Indian settlements like Kampung Buah Pala in Penang and the Ladang Batu Pekaka Hindu cemetery in Kuala Ketil, Kedah.

“How can Pakatan expect Indian support when it emulates the BN administration?” he asked.

‘Get your act together’

In view of this, Asoghan called on Pakatan decision-makers and strategists to get their act together and address the issue.

“Or else, Pakatan can kiss goodbye to Putrajaya,” he said.

He was referring to the recent call by DAP vice-chairman and Ipoh Barat MP M Kulasegaran for Pakatan to woo back Indian support.

Kulasegaran warned that Pakatan’s ambition of capturing Putrajaya would hit a brick wall if did not arrest the declining support of Malay and Indian voters.

Asoghan said Pakatan for a start should not have adopted the mandore politics ala BN.

He said chief ministers, relevant executive councillors and elected representatives should have directly addressed and resolved arising Indian issues.

He said Pakatan’s argument that its state governments needed more time to perform also did not go down well with the Indian masses.

He added that grassroots Indians have pointed out that during the same short period, Pakatan governments carried out beneficial programmes for the Malays and Chinese.

Asoghan also did not mince his words when taking a swipe at Pakatan’s Indian elected representatives, comprising 10 MPs and 17 assemblymen.

He criticised them for failing to form a community caucus at the national and state levels within the coalition as desired by working class Indians.

Through this caucus, he said, Indian elected representatives could have formulated and recommended constructive policies for implementation.

17 February 2011

Sore Ronnie calls Wan Azizah a ‘liar’ - Luke Rintod

Sabah PKR has landed itself in trouble again, this time over a comment by its president Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail.


Barely hours after interim Sabah PKR president Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail announced a state revamp and the formation of 12 committees in preparation for the coming general election, she has s been called a “liar”.

Sabah PKR former communication director, Ronnie Klassen, has taken offence to Wan Azizah’s claim that his post was “non-existent” and that he was “self-appointed”.

“Wan Azizah today issued a press statement in the local news media in Sabah saying that the ‘post of communications director of Sabah PKR does not exist, there was no such post and there never was’. She stated that I self-appointed myself to the post.

“Today I am saying Wan Azizah is a liar because in July 2009, I was offered the post, and it took me two weeks to decide on it.

“On Aug 2, 2009, when Azmin Ali (then Sabah PKR chief) called for a press conference in Sandakan in his first state liaison meeting, he announced my appointment as communication director on the advice of de facto leader Anwar Ibrahim; so she lied,” Klassen told reporters here today.

Klassen, who took Wan Azizah to task not only for lying but for her unappreciative attitude, claimed that all this while Wan Azizah, Anwar and almost everyone in PKR leadership realised and acknowledged his role as its communication director in Sabah.

“She even congratulated me after I gave a speech during a meeting with jobless Sabahans, which I and the DAP, organised in Petaling Jaya in April 2010. I was called to the stage as Sabah PKR communication director. Lim Kit Siang was also there.

“I was not under PKR payroll. My key people and myself sacrificed time for this cause.

“So Wan Azizah’s words were a shock to me after 18 months in the post. I served under Azmin and (later) Ahmad Thamrin Jaini as well as under Pajudin Nordin’s brief tenure as state PKR chief,” he said.

Weighing his options

On the insinuation by Wan Azizah that he was not acting for PKR when he lodged a police report against the self-proclaimed Sulu sultan Akjan Muhammad Ali on Feb 11, Klassen said he and Dr Chong Eng Leong did so as responsible Malaysian citizens.

“But by saying I acted on a personal basis, does this mean PKR leadership is agreeing to the proclamation of a Sulu sultan here in Sabah?” he asked.

He also denied that he was a sore loser because, like his close friend Ansari Abdullah (Tuaran chief), he was not part of Wan Azizah’s newly minted 12-member presidential council announced earlier today.

Klassen said he could not understand why after 18 months of hard work, Wan Azizah had decided to brush aside his role as if it never mattered or existed.

“In the 18 months, a lot of functions had been organised by PKR and in some I was invited as a speaker. I was announced as the communication director. Now suddenly she said there was no such post.

“Invitations to PKR press conferences had always been extended by me as the communication director,” he added.

He said he even organised a dialogue with about 150 young professionals with PKR adviser Anwar Ibrahim at the Kinabalu Club in September 2009, soon after he assumed his role.

According to Klassen, he was tasked by the central leadership to open the mind of young people to PKR struggles and he thought he did the best for the party.

But the latest incident has forced him to review his situation.

“I am weighing my option, but I will stick with the opposition side.”

“I’ve managed to accumulate close to 100,000 followers online.

“At any one time there are one million people who could receive any message from me through my Facebook, blog and e-mails,” Klassen claimed.

SNAP’s return haunts Taib and PKR - Joe Fernandez

All this has brought the current political situation in Sarawak full circle, with SNAP once again virtually calling the shots. The party stands poised as the most credible threat to the ruling coalition and well-placed to deny it the 29 Dayak state seats.



Sarawak Chief Minister Abdul Taib Mahmud, by all accounts, is thinking of going for state election sooner rather than later. This is being driven by the SNAP factor. The Sarawak National Party’s rapidly growing influence since its recent rejuvenation indicates that the Dayak majority of Sarawak is becoming increasingly restless. Taib, being a Melanau, is also a Dayak, but he’s from a Muslim minority.

Taib, according to one report, is fumbling “like a man driven berserk” for an election date in March or April. The speculation is that any date with a 9 in it, or which adds up to 9, such as 18 or 27, would be the date of the next state election. Nine is Taib’s favourite number.

With events on the Sarawak ground rapidly spinning out of control, he can no longer afford the luxury of waiting for Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak to accept his idea of the Sarawak election running simultaneously with the general election, which, according to his thinking, would take the intense opposition heat off him. This is especially true in the Chinese and urban areas, in many Dayak seats and some Muslim seats.

No such luck for Taib. Najib, with former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad breathing down his neck, is more interested in saving in own skin than swimming or sinking with the Sarawak chief minister. He may well remember Mahathir raising the hand of then Sabah Chief Minister Harris Salleh in public in 1985 and pledging to swim or sink with the Harris’s Berjaya Party. Harris sank, but Mahathir swam safely to shore.

Najib, whom Kelantan strongman Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah once described as yellow-bellied, is more inclined to treat Taib as a guinea pig in his bid for his own mandate. The number of state seats that Taib’s coalition can muster will give Najib an idea of how many of the 31 parliamentary seats in Sarawak he can count on when it is his turn to face the people.

In Sarawak 2011, there are shades of Sabah 1985, when the 45-day-old Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS) defeated the mighty Berjaya. Even Harris lost his deposit at the hands of the unknown Kadoh Agundong.

Senior Sarawak Barisan Nasional (BN) leaders grudgingly concede that SNAP currently presents the most serious threat to Taib’s Pesaka Bumiputera Bersatu (PBB) and its hold on power. DAP is a threat only to the Chinese-based Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP), which Taib may be forced to sacrifice anyway to fend off the opposition and to better focus on what he can keep.

What particularly rankles Taib is that Daniel Tajem anak Miri, a sworn enemy, is back in the limelight as SNAP adviser. Tajem, once deputy chief minister under Taib, was a senior leader in SNAP until 1983, when it suffered a breakup that gave birth to Parti Bansa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS), evidently financed by PBB moneybags under Taib’s direction.

Deeply suspicious

Taib, still deeply suspicious that the Dayaks would unite and overthrow his family’s dynastic hold on power, also financed the splintering of PBDS after Tajem became its president in 2003. The breakaway was Parti Rakyat Sarawak (PRS) under James Masing. Only 20,000 members from PBDS, less than half of them Dayaks, joined Masing.

PBDS itself was deregistered and attempts by Tajem to gather his people, numbering over 100,000 by a conservative count, under the Malaysian Dayak Congress (MDC) was thwarted by the Registrar of Societies (ROS) on “national security grounds”.

Tajem parked himself at the Sarawak PKR as adviser.

The rump SNAP was further humiliated when PBB financed the breakaway Sarawak Progressive Democratic Party (SPDP) in 2002 under William Mawan. SNAP was kicked out of Sarawak BN the day the ROS deregistered it. The courts subsequently saved SNAP after many months.

Taib tried to have PRS deregistered as well between the 2004 and 2008 general elections. However, then prime minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi stepped in and saved the party just as he was going for the early polls that eventually cooked his goose.

SPDP has also suffered at the hands of Taib’s mischief-making, which saw half its legislators swearing allegiance to Masing and making bids to join PRS.

All this has brought the current political situation in Sarawak full circle, with SNAP once again virtually calling the shots. The party stands poised as the most credible threat to the ruling coalition and well-placed to deny it the 29 Dayak state seats.

Harsh reality

Now Taib’s past is haunting his future.

Sarawak PKR would obviously like to have some of the Dayak seats besides the two Chinese seats promised it by DAP under a condition which is unlikely to be met. DAP wants PKR’s Dominic Ng of Padungan put in cold storage.

SNAP, however, wants Sarawak PKR to focus on the Muslim seats, including the Muslim Melanau seats, and stay clear of the non-Muslim native seats. This is unlikely to go down well with Sarawak PKR, which is led by introvert land rights lawyer and activist Baru Bian, a Dayak Christian.

At one time, there was strong talk that Bian would ditch PKR for SNAP, but this became difficult after he was appointed head of the party’s Sarawak chapter.

In any case, Sarawak PKR has yet to come to terms with the harsh reality that it no longer calls the shots in Sarawak Pakatan Rakyat. Taib has capitalised on this by advising businessman Sng Chee Hua to offer to finance PKR candidates at the next state election. The condition is that Sng would suggest who would represent PKR.

This arrangement is likely to end in disaster for PKR at the polls, especially if the party insists on fielding candidates in Dayak seats.

Sng is a former deputy president of PRS and former deputy president of PBDS when Masing, in defiance of Tajem, claimed to be the party president as well. This was after Leo Moggie anak Irok stepped down in 2003.

Sng’s son Larry is a party-less assistant minister in Taib’s Cabinet – after his claim to be PRS president failed – and is married to the daughter of construction tycoon Ting Pek King. The younger Sng holds the majority Iban Pelagus seat, which “belongs” to PRS under the Sarawak BN quota system.

16 February 2011

Pergolakan di Mesir: Persamaan, Perbezaan dengan Malaysia dan Opportunisme Politik - Syed Ahmad

Perkara paling ketara yang dapat diperhatikan sepanjang revolusi yang bermula pada 25 Januari 2011 di Mesir adalah kebijaksanaan dan disiplin golongan penentang rejim Mubarak, terutamanya Ikhwan Muslimin, dalam keengganan mereka untuk menjadi opportunis politik dan menggunakan gerakan protes rakyat tersebut sebagai satu cara atau vehicle untuk merebut kuasa politik. Ini adalah disebabkan kesedaran dan pegangan di kalangan mereka bahawa perubahan atau reformasi adalah lebih penting dari kuasa atau jawatan politik semata-mata.
oleh Syed Ahmad bin Syed Ibrahim melalui e-mel



Apabila terjadinya kebangkitan rakyat menentang Hosni Mubarak secara besar-besaran di Mesir, di Malaysia pula kedua-dua belah pihak iaitu kerajaan dan pembangkang pastinya sama ada secara senyap-senyap atau terang-terang membuat perbandingan dan bertanya terdapatkah apa-apa persamaan ataupun perbezaan di antara kedua-dua negara. Soalan pokok yang mahu dicari jawapan: bolehkah apa yang terjadi di Mesir berlaku di Malaysia?

Secara pandangan mata kasar, beberapa persamaan memang ada.

Pertama, persamaan paling jelas adalah kedua-dua negara mempunyai penduduk majoriti Islam. Bagaimanapun kalau berdasarkan laporan media yang tidak sering putus, faktor agama semata-mata bukanlah yang paling penting dalam mencetus kebangkitan rakyat Mesir. Para penunjuk perasaan terdiri dari orang Islam dan juga Kristian Koptik. Oleh itu, persamaan dari segi agama ini mungkin boleh dianggap sebagai tidak begitu relevan dalam usaha untuk menjawab soalan pokok yang dinyatakan di atas.

Kedua, tempoh pemerintahan rejim yang menjadi sasaran protes. Di sini ada persamaan dan juga perbezaan. Di Mesir, usia rejim Mubarak telah menjangkau tiga dekad sementara di Malaysia pula tampuk pemerintahan negara telah dipegang selama lebih lima dekad oleh Barisan Nasional/Perikatan, yakni sejak negara merdeka. Sekiranya dipandang dari segi ini, memanglah ada persamaannya. Bagaimanapun, di Malaysia orang yang memegang jawatan ketua eksekutif, iaitu perdana menteri, telah bertukar sebanyak lima kali dan tidak seperti Mubarak di Mesir. Perdana menteri sekarang, Najib Tun Razak, baru dua tahun memegang jawatan. Ini adalah satu perbezaan. Kemarahan dan kemuakan rakyat Mesir dapat ditumpukan kepada keperibadian Mubarak kerana dialah yang telah begitu lama memerintah negara dan boleh dianggap punca segala kelemahan dan kesusahan masyarakat Mesir. Adalah menjadi 'open question' ataupun soalan tiada berjawapan buat masa ini sama ada perkara yang sama boleh dikatakan terhadap Najib.

Ketiga, kepincangan masyarakat yang menjadi bahan dan sebab musabab protes. Di dalam hal ini, terdapat banyak persamaan di antara Mesir dan Malaysia.

Korupsi dan penyelewengan kuasa adalah isu yang mendapat perhatian dan menimbulkan ketidakpuasan hati rakyat, baik di Mesir, baik di negara ini. Dan ianya bukanlah perkara baru dalam mencetus kemarahan rakyat. Amalan korupsi memang terdapat di kedua-dua negara. Janji pemerintah untuk membasmi korupsi secara serius jika dilihat tidak dikotakan pasti akan menambahkan kebencian rakyat. Apatah lagi sekiranya yang mengamal rasuah dan kronisma adalah pemerintah itu sendiri.

Di Mesir, institusi-institusi negara telah disalahgunakan untuk menjadi alat politik bagi memperkuatkan cengkaman kuasa rejim Mubarak. Badan-badan kerajaan seperti polis dan pasukan risikan dan keselamatan dalam negeri digunakan untuk menekan dan menindas mana-mana golongan dan anasir yang berani bersuara menentang rejim. Media massa di bawah kuasa rasmi rejim dan juga swasta dikawal untuk membendung suara dan mesej pihak yang membangkang kerajaan. Di dalam aspek ini, sudah pasti di Malaysia, persepsi umumnya adalah tiada bezanya antara Mesir dan Malaysia. Ini berdasarkan apa yang rakyat telah saksikan berlaku sejak pentadbiran perdana menteri ke-empat, Mahathir Mohamad.

Kadar pengangguran lepasan universiti yang tinggi juga telah dikatakan sebagai salah satu faktor penting dalam memulakan kebangkitan rakyat Mesir. Ini adalah kerana anak-anak muda merupakan golongan utama dan awal dalam menganggotai protes jalanan yang telah berlaku. Ekonomi negara itu yang tidak berkembang dengan kadar yang membolehkan peluang pekerjaan bertambah dan mencukupi bagi para lepasan universiti telah menjadi asas bagi 'unfulfilled expectations' atau harapan yang tidak dipenuhi di kalangan anak muda lepasan universiti. Ada pemerhati yang menganggap faktor ini lebih penting dari kemiskinan rakyat dalam mencetus revolusi jalanan di Mesir. 'Unfulfilled expectations' di kalangan generasi muda terpelajar ini memberikan kesimpulan kepada mereka bahawa sekiranya perubahan atau reformasi masyarakat hendak dihidupkan, syarat utama yang perlu dipenuhi adalah perubahan rejim atau 'regime change'.

Adakah mirip-miripnya juga di Malaysia? Pengangguran lepasan universiti memang ada dan kebelakangan ini dikatakan seramai lebih 60,000 siswazah telah tidak mendapat pekerjaan, satu angka yang boleh juga dianggap tinggi. Bagaimanapun, adakah ini satu angka yang sudah mencecah tahap kritikal yang mana 'unfulfilled expectations' akan menjadi bahan untuk satu kebangkitan rakyat sama seperti apa yang telah dilihat di Mesir? Setakat ini, tiada tanda-tanda yang mengiyakan.

Selepas berbicara tentang persamaan yang mungkin ada di antara Mesir dan Malaysia, apa pula perbezaan yang dapat dikenalpasti?

Di Mesir, pilihanraya yang telah dijalankan rata-rata dipersoal dan dicurigai kredibilitinya, terutama sekali yang terkini diadakan pada November dan Disember 2010. Di dalam pilihanraya itu, Mubarak telah diumumkan mendapat 97% undi sokongan dari para pengundi Mesir, satu keputusan yang tidak dipercayai oleh rakyat Mesir sendiri. Oleh sebab proses pilihanraya kerajaan dianggap tidak boleh dipakai sebagai mewakili sentimen dan kehendak rakyat, maka pilihan yang tinggal adalah demonstrasi jalanan.

Di Malaysia, pilihanraya secara umumnya masih boleh dianggap sebagai bebas (free), walaupun terdapat beberapa tandatanya sama ada ia boleh dianggap adil (fair). Perkara-perkara seperti undi pos dan daftar pengundi yang kurang kemas serta penguatkuasaan peraturan pilihanraya yang tidak konsisten menjadi asas kritikan bahawa proses pilihanraya di Malaysia adalah kurang adil.

Bagaimanapun, berdasarkan pilihanraya 2008, yang mana parti pemerintah telah kalah di banyak kerusi dan negeri, pilihanraya di Malaysia boleh dikira masih bebas dan mempunyai potensi sebagai cara untuk rakyat menukar kerajaan. Jadi, di dalam aspek ini, perbezaan ini berbanding Mesir mungkin akan mengurangkan kebarangkalian protes jalanan besar-besaran berlaku di Malaysia sebagai salah satu kaedah untuk 'regime change'.

Sekiranya terjadi atau meletusnya kebangkitan rakyat Malaysia, seperti yang terjadi di Mesir, apa pula faktor yang boleh membawa kepada kejayaan aspirasi rakyat ataupun sebaliknya, yakni kegagalan?

Perkara paling ketara yang dapat diperhatikan sepanjang revolusi yang bermula pada 25 Januari 2011 di Mesir adalah kebijaksanaan dan disiplin golongan penentang rejim Mubarak, terutamanya Ikhwan Muslimin, dalam keengganan mereka untuk menjadi opportunis politik dan menggunakan gerakan protes rakyat tersebut sebagai satu cara atau vehicle untuk merebut kuasa politik. Ini adalah disebabkan kesedaran dan pegangan di kalangan mereka bahawa perubahan atau reformasi adalah lebih penting dari kuasa atau jawatan politik semata-mata.

Di samping itu mereka sedar bahawa gerakan protes besar-besaran itu telah timbul secara spontan dan dianjur atau disusun oleh golongan muda yang tidak mempunyai apa-apa pertalian kepada mana-mana parti politik. Revolusi yang tercetus itu adalah bagaikan anak kecil yang mesti dibenarkan untuk membesar sendiri. Sekiranya Ikhwan atau mana-mana pertubuhan politik tergesa-gesa atau terlalu gopoh untuk mendakap anak kecil itu dan mendakwa anak kecil itu dia yang punya, sudah pastinya musuh-musuh revolusi akan membunuh anak kecil itu. Di situlah terletaknya kelebihan parti-parti pembangkang di Mesir. Mereka tidak membenarkan cita-cita peribadi dan keinginan untuk kuasa politik mempengaruhi tindak tanduk mereka. Yang paling penting, reformasi atau revolusi dalam masyarakat mereka mesti terdahulunya diberi ruang dan peluang untuk wujud. Sekiranya dunia kagum atas keberanian dan kecekalan rakyat Mesir dalam berdemonstrasi beramai-ramai menumbangkan Mubarak, wajar juga dunia menyanjung kewarasan dan kebijaksanaan pertubuhan pembangkang Mesir dalam menangani pergolakan yang melanda negara mereka.

Persoalannya sekarang adakah terdapat barisan pembangkang yang sedemikian rupa di negara kita?

Mungkin untuk mencari jawapannya, perlu kita amati tindak-tanduk ketua pembangkang di Parlimen Malaysia yang juga pemimpin parti pembangkang, yakni Dato' Seri Anwar Ibrahim, sepanjang karier politik beliau.

Beliau telah muncul sebagai seorang pemimpin pelajar ketika menjadi mahasiswa di Universiti Malaya. Jawatan yang dipegang olehnya sebagai presiden Persatuan Bahasa Melayu Universiti Malaya telah memberi beliau peluang untuk menganjur dan mengerah tenaga pelajar secara besar-besaran untuk berdemonstrasi pada tahun 1971 semasa lawatan Thanom Kittikachorn, perdana menteri Thailand, ke Kuala Lumpur. Punca demonstrasi adalah penindasan rejim Kittikachorn ke atas orang Islam Patani yang menyemarakkan perjuangan pemisah di wilayah itu. Demonstrasi pelajar yang berlaku adalah antara yang terbesar pernah diadakan di kota Kuala Lumpur. Selepas demonstrasi itu, Anwar menjadi terkenal sebagai seorang pemimpin dan aktivis pelajar yang hebat.

Reputasi dan pengaruh beliau terus menyerlah apabila tunjuk perasaan mahasiswa besar-besaran berlaku lagi pada tahun 1974 untuk membantah dasar kerajaan terhadap golongan miskin. Punca demonstrasi adalah kebuluran yang dikatakan telah berlaku di daerah Baling, Kedah. Anwar telah dikenali sebagai ketua demonstrasi tersebut dan ditangkap di bawah ISA.

Selepas dibebaskan dari tahanan ISA, Anwar menggunakan kemasyhuran beliau sebagai seorang pemimpin pelajar dan aktivis Islam untuk menerajui Angkatan Belia Islam Malaysia (ABIM). Dengan itu juga, reputasi beliau sebagai seorang pejuang Islam menyerlah dan ABIM muncul sebagai sebuah pressure group atau kumpulan desakan untuk terus mendapat perhatian kerajaan dan masyarakat umum.

Pada tahun 1982, Mahathir Mohamad, perdana menteri ketika itu, dalam usahanya untuk menarik sokongan pergerakan Islam yang kini kuat pengaruhnya, telah memujuk Anwar untuk menyertai parti pemerintah iaitu Umno. Anwar bersetuju dan akhirnya pada 1993 berjaya menjadi timbalan presiden Umno dan timbalan perdana menteri negara.

Apabila diamati babak-babak di atas, Anwar adalah seorang yang bijak menggunakan peluang untuk memajukan karier politiknya. Sentimen dan pergolakan semasa digunakan oleh beliau untuk menonjolkan kepimpinannya. Teras perjuangan juga tidak dikecualikan dan berubah-ubah demi menguatkan reputasi dan mengembang pengaruh serta jawatan – dari pejuang Bahasa Melayu yang kuat bau idealogi nasionalisnya, kepada aktivis Islam anti-nasionalisma, dan balik kepada nasionalis semasa di dalam Umno.

Pada tahun 1998 ketika ekonomi negara dilanda krisis matawang, Anwar telah tercium peluang untuk menambah kuasa berasaskan ketidakpuasan umum terhadap pemerintahan Mahathir. Pada tahun yang sama, gelombang reformasi dan kebangkitan rakyat Indonesia menentang rejim Suharto telah berjaya menumbangkan Suharto sebagai presiden republik itu. Isu 'Korupsi, Kronisme, Nepotisme' adalah bahan gelombang Reformasi di Indonesia dalam menamatkan pemerintahan Suharto. Anwar telah mengeksploitasi sentimen yang serupa dalam cubaan beliau untuk mengetepikan Mahathir. Bagaimanapun percaturan Mahathir lebih pantas dan Mahathir telah membuang Anwar dari jawatan dan parti.

Krisis politik yang menyusul juga telah digunakan oleh Anwar untuk menonjolkan diri beliau sebagai seorang pejuang reformasi yang berani menentang Mahathir yang kian dibenci ramai. Beliau menjadi ikon gerakan reformasi apabila dipenjarakan oleh Mahathir pada September 1998.

Selepas dibebaskan dari penjara pada tahun 2004, Anwar terus dianggap sebagai pemimpin reformasi dan selepas pilihanraya 2008 dilihat sebagai pemimpin pembangkang yang telah berjaya membawa kemenangan besar kepada parti-parti pembangkang. Teras perjuangan beliau kali ini adalah politik kepelbagaian kaum di samping dikenali di peringkat antarabangsa sebagai seorang demokrat Islam.

Terkini, setelah melihat revolusi spontan yang berlaku di Tunisia dan Mesir, adalah jelas kelihatan Anwar sedang giat mengekspoloitasi peristiwa-peristiwa tersebut untuk membentuk satu mindset di kalangan rakyat Malaysia bahawa pemerintahan negara sekarang ini adalah sama dengan rejim-rejim yang telah tumbang di negara-negara tersebut, dan beliau adalah pemimpin barisan pembangkang yang senada dan sehati dengan rakyat jelata yang mengambil bahagian dalam protes jalanan di Mesir dan Tunisia.

Setelah diamati karier politik Anwar Ibrahim, jawapan kini boleh diperolehi bagi soalan yang dikemukakan di atas: adakah tokoh politik pembangkang di Malaysia mempunyai cukup kebijaksanaan dan disiplin politik untuk tidak mengalah kepada nafsu gilakan kuasa dan political opportunism sekiranya tercetusnya kebangkitan rakyat secara spontan menentang kezaliman pemerintah?

Jawapannya adalah tidak. Rekod tindak-tanduk Anwar sepanjang karier politiknya menunjukkan beliau akan tidak teragak-agak untuk mengambil peluang dari kebangkitan rakyat untuk menghadapankan cita-cita peribadi beliau, tidak seperti Ikhwan di Mesir. Pendek kata sekiranya beliau adalah pemimpin pembangkang di Mesir pada 25 Januari 2011, revolusi rakyat akan berakhir dengan kekalahan dan kehampaan akibat sikap political opportunism beliau.



SYED AHMAD BIN SYED IBRAHIM

15 February 2011

Camno nak handel Mallot? - Mohd. Ariff Sabri

Ada orang kata, kita tak perlu layan Mallot sebab dia bukan taraf itu dan ini. Adakah ini bermaksud, hanya bila kita ada taraf dan kedudukan, maka kita ada hak untuk beri komen? Kalau macam saya ADUN pencen, dikira takde taraf, tak boleh beri pandangan ke atas buah fikiran bangang Pak Menteri, ADUN atau MP?



Saya tak tahu apa nak cakap. Apo nak den kato?

Kita ada menteri yang tak mampu berdebat, maka saranannya ialah mengenakan arahan tidak boleh masuk ke negara ini. Jadi kalau caliber menteri kita hanya berdaya menggunakan kuasa fiat dan undang undang, orang akan mentertawakan kemampuan minda bangsa 1 Malaysia. John Mallot bekas duta USA telah menulis suatu artikel. Artikel tersebut di katakan agak keras mengecam pemerintahan DS Najib.

Kita bebas menyatakan kita tidak setuju. Kita validatelah bangkangan kita dengan penghujjahan. Kita lawan minda dengan minda.

Saya sendiri telah menulis dua artikel sendiri (sini dan sini) menyatakan tidak bersetuju dengan pandangan Mallot. Sebelum itu saya telah muat-turun satu artikel oleh Umar Mukhtar. Saya pun kena hentam dalam artikel yang pertama. Dalam artikel kedua bila saya mengupas point by point, kita dapati penghujjahannya melarat kepada perkara lain.

Kepada saya itu petanda bahawa apa yang Mallot katakan bukanlah definitive. Maka kalau ianya bukan definitive, apa pasal kita hilang akal sebentar dan mahu kenakan travel ban?

Sepatutnya, kita jemput Mallot datang untuk memberi pandangannya. Dan jika Nazri terror, dia boleh berdebat dengan Mallot. Kita akan sokong kalau dia menunjukkan kejantanannya dalam gelanggang.

Kalau menteri UMNO bersikap tongong macam ini, susahlah kita hendak mempertahankan kredibiliti kepimpinan UMNO. Ada orang kata, kita tak perlu layan Mallot sebab dia bukan taraf itu dan ini. Adakah ini bermaksud, hanya bila kita ada taraf dan kedudukan, maka kita ada hak untuk beri komen? Kalau macam saya ADUN pencen, dikira takde taraf, tak boleh beri pandangan ke atas buah fikiran bangang Pak Menteri, ADUN atau MP?

Ada menteri kata pandangan Mallot ketinggalan zaman. Kalau ketinggalan zaman, ekau tunjukkan di mano jang. Jika main beri kenyataan yang umum, tidaklah ekau terer eh jang.

Kalau kita nak ban orang sebab dia beri pandangan yang tidak menyenangkan kita, ini namanya macam kebudak-budakan.

Yang paling saya meluat ialah kita memperkecilkan pandangan Mallot sebab dia dikatakan berkawan dengan Anwar Ibrahim. Siapa dia nak berkawan sepatutnya tidak mendatangkan masalah kepada kita. Anwar Ibrahim ini dahulukan Timbalan Perdana Menteri kita dan Timbalan Presiden UMNO. Suatu ketika, semua mereka yang sekarang ini dok hentam Anwar cium tangan Pak Sheikh. Kita harus membezakan antara penyakit peribadi dan ingatan tulus ikhlas.

Wallahu'alam bissawab.

Lip service won’t do, Anwar - K Pragalath

“The man Pakatan Rakyat wants to install as prime minister only talks and makes empty promises. He should fulfill his election pledges. He’s the Selangor economic advisor and should learn how to deliver instead of embarking on a road show.” - N. Gobalakrishnan



Former PKR strongman N Gobalakrishnan said that the party is doomed to failure because its leader Anwar Ibrahim was only good at paying lip service and not delivering on his promises.

“The man Pakatan Rakyat wants to install as prime minister only talks and makes empty promises. He should fulfill his election pledges.

“He’s the Selangor economic advisor and should learn how to deliver instead of embarking on a road show,” said Gobalakrishnan as he continued his barrage of criticism against the opposition leader and former boss.

Comparing Anwar to Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak, the now independent MP for Padang Serai, said Anwar does not go down on the ground to listen to the people problems and resolve issues affecting them.

Gobalakrishnan said this is why party members and representatives are dissappointed and have left the left the party as they were made to feel like orphans.

“Why are only PKR leaders leaving the party unlike in PAS and DAP?” he asked.

“I’ll tell you why,” he said in a quick reply to his self-imposed question, “It is because the party does not listen its grassroots leaders.

“They are ignored and made to feel like orphans who have been abandoned. PKR has become a laughing stock in the country’s political landscape.”

Unlike the PKR leadership, Gobalakrishnan said PAS’ Kelantan Menteri Besar Nik Aziz Nik Mat had always emphasised on its state assemblypersons and MPs to take interest in the welfare its party members.

Based on his own experience, the 51-year-old first-term parliamentarian said that funds for his Padang Serai constituency were channelled to PAS.

“Anwar didn’t dare ask PAS for funds on my behalf, but he openly criticise Barisan Nasional for not disbursing it to opposition MPs ,” explained Gobalakrishnan.

Bian no match for Sng’s money, connections - Free Malaysia Today

Pressure is piling on Bian to heed calls for him join to SNAP instead of staying on in PKR now that Sng Chee Hua has entered the picture.



Should Sarawak PKR chief Baru Bian and company continue to place their trust in the party now that money-bags Sng Chee Hua has “openly” moved into the game?

It’s a question that is being bandied about here and in Sarawak ever since Sng’s “secretive” breakfast meeting with PKR de facto chief Anwar Ibrahim last weekend.

For one thing, Bian was not invited to Sng’s pre-arranged breakfast chat lending credence to a commonly-held view that Kuala Lumpur has no respect for Bian and his role.

What was so secretive about the discussion between Anwar and Sng that they couldn’t have Bian sitting in?

Rumour has it that it was all money talk. Speculations are rife that Anwar is busy “sourcing” for money in Sabah and Sarawak to secure Azmin Ali’s leadership and the party’s depleted coffers.

Sng is within Chief Minister Taib Mahmud’s circle. His son Larry Sng, 32, holds two Assistant Minister portfolios in Taib’s Cabinet.

Taib is said to have a soft spot for Larry who, despite being a partyless Pelagus assemblyman, has had Taib’s indirect blessings to contest in the coming state polls.

But Taib has also said that he will not take in independents, who won seats in the polls, into BN. This leaves ample room for father Sng to negotiate a package befitting his son and Anwar.

(Incidentally, Larry’s father-in-law is prominent Sarawak businessman and also Taib ally, Ting Phek Khing.)

Sng is already reported to be “deciding on and financing” PKR’s 15 candidates in Sarawak subject to certain “terms and conditions”’

Whatever are the terms, it is expected to work well for both Taib and Anwar. Likewise, in Sabah it is said that it is all part of a “strategy” which saw Chief Minister Musa Aman recently “receive” with open arms former state PKR leader Pajudin Nordin, who is with Ansari Abdullah, who in turn is Azmin’s pointman in Sabah. Pajudin’s move to Umno was sudden.

Clear threat

Bian unfortunately is not among Sng’s “must haves”.

In fact, in Sarawak PKR, Sng and his money is a clear threat to Bian’s influence among the Dayak and Chinese members.

“We are worried. With Sng there is now a change in status quo between Bian and Anwar. He won’t be able to fight Sng’s money and his association with Anwar and Taib.

“Bian and his supporters don’t have the muscle to take on both Sng and Taib,” a source said, adding that Bian was also having problems within the rank and file in the party.

According to another insider, Bian was not PKR central leadership”s first choice.

“He was the third choice… there isn’t a big pool of capable Dayak leaders in Sarawak.

“And when KL decided on him… the Muslims were angry.

“Within Sarawak PKR itself, there are three factions… one led by Sng, the other by Muslim members, and now he has to contend with a re-emerging SNAP (Sarawak Nasional Party),” said the insider.

Not accepted

Sarawak PKR Youth chief Ahmad Nazib Johari, when contacted about the factions, said that he too was aware of the rumours.

He admitted to an “initial discomfort” with Bian’s appointment.

“Yes, there were issues when Bian was appointed… I believe there are still some who are not comfortable.

“But we’ve generally accepted the top level leadership’s decision and are looking at the bigger picture.

“I don’t think it is a problem anymore… as our enemy is the Barisan Nasional and as a party, we are focused on bringing them down,” Ahmad Nazib told FMT in Kuching.

Another Muslim PKR member, however, had a terse response when asked about Bian:

“Bian is not a leader… he is a bigot who should not be leading the party.”

Meanwhile, Bian is struggling with the threat posed by the re-emergence of SNAP and its willingness to be inclusive.

Further damaging to Bian is “iconic” Dayak, Daniel Tajem’s unequivocal support for SNAP.

Respected voice

Tajem, who was among the key people who set up the now defunct Parti Bangsa Dayak Sarawak (PBDS), was once described by Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) chief Yong Teck Lee as “the icon of Dayak politics”.

In fact, at PKR’s fifth national assembly 2008 in Selangor, Anwar liked Tajem to the “star” in Dayak politics.

Tajem, a diplomat, is a much respected voice among the Dayaks and his call in recent weeks for Dayaks to return to SNAP, which gave Sarawak its first chief minister in Stephen Kalong Ningkan, is troubling for Bian and the state PKR.

Tajem has his own diehard fans within Sarawak’s PKR and many are in two minds about staying on in the party.

Said a SNAP insider: “SNAP is crystalising its strength and rapidly gaining support… it’s tapping Dayaks across the country.”

“Bian should join SNAP. Now is the time for him to realise his worth… SNAP is prepared to field him as a candidate.

“Our doors are open to him but Bian must decide. What is important now is straight fights with BN in all the constituencies,” the insider said.

While admitting to Bian’s strength on native customary rights (NCR) land issue, the insider said “land issue alone is now insufficient”.

“The folk in Lun Bawang like him and he’s known for his work with land cases… but that’s it. It’s not enough in a bigger political fight to administer Sarawak.

“This is the big opportunity… the opposition must offer workable alternatives to poverty and practical infrasructural development,” said the insider, referring to the majority of Sarawak’s over 60% Dayak community who are still trapped in poverty despite the state being rich in natural resources.

Selamat Jalan PKR - Mat Saman Kati

Sebelum menang, macam-macam janji. Macam-macam harapan yang ditaburkan. Selepas menang, janji entah kemana, harapan entah kemana...



PKR pasca 2008, tak sama dengan PKR pra-2008. PKR sebelum menang, tak sama dengan PKR selepas menang.

Sebelum menang, macam-macam janji. Macam-macam harapan yang ditaburkan. Selepas menang, janji entah kemana, harapan entah kemana.

Aku dah baca banyak komen. Aku dah dengar banyak alasan. Aku dah tengok banyak contoh. Dan aku dah rasa banyak pengalaman.

Cukup lah sampai disini. Aku tak mau lagi bersubahat dengan mereka yang mungkir janji. Sebab mungkir janji itu adalah sifat munafik.

Aku tak mau dengar alasan lagi. Sebab alasan hanyalah helah untuk menutup kelemahan.

Aku tak mau kutuk lagi, sebab itu bukan contoh yang baik.

Dengan itu, aku mengambil sikap untuk berundur dari PKR. Aku bukan keluar PKR, sebab aku masih lagi memegang prinsip yang diperjuangkan. Tetapi aku tak sanggup lagi berada dalam PKR yang ada hari ini kerana ianya tidak lagi memegang prinsip yang diperjuangkan.

Maka dengan ini, aku mengisytiharkan, bahawa aku bukan lagi ahli PKR, bukan lagi penyokong PKR dan tidak ada kena mengena dengan PKR. Tetapi bukan bermakna aku memusuhi semua kerabat PKR. Masih ramai mereka yang didalam PKR yang aku hormati. Tetapi oleh kerana ianya dipimpin oleh mereka yang tidak lagi aku hormati, maka aku tidak lagi mahu bersubahat dengan mereka.

Selamat jalan PKR.

Time Is Running Out - Masterwordsmith

It is quite evident that BN has the upper hand in the race to the next GE. Support for Pakatan Rakyat is waning due to many reasons including the fast imploding PKR, the implications of the verdict in Anwar's Sodomy II Trial on Anwar and PKR and other factors.

Most of us seem to be either in political fatigue, or going about with a newly-acquired apolitical stance or filled with skepticism. Yet, the fact remains that the next GE is fast approaching, probably sooner than we think.




SIGNS OF TIMES

1. The Decline in Malay support

The Malaysian Insider featured an article HERE on PAS spells out guarantees in battle for Malay votes which said:

PR has seen a decline in Malay support since July 2009 where a by-election in the 99 per cent Malay seat of Manek Urai, Kelantan saw a 1,352-vote majority for PAS in their stronghold cut to a wafer-thin 65.

Malays continued to swing towards Barisan Nasional (BN) in subsequent polls from about seven to 10 per cent, allowing the ruling coalition to grab Hulu Selangor and Galas from PR.

The most recent by-election in Tenang, Johor, saw PR fail to make any headway among the mainly Felda Malays as BN swept over 83 per cent of Malay votes to increase its majority by over 1,200 votes.

2. The Public Relations Campaign to boost support in Sarawak

It seems that BN is in overdrive to preserve their fixed deposit in Sarawak. Take a look at the following news items that were aired today.
a) Sarawak's Tutoh Apoh School to Get Muhyiddin's Special Attention

A rural secondary school which is the most flood-prone in the country will get special attention from Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin when the deputy prime minister begins a two-day visit to Sarawak on Thursday.

Muhyiddin, who is also the education minister, is scheduled to attend a briefing at and tour Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Tutoh Apoh in Long Panai, Baram, for which the federal government had allocated RM50 million for a new building in view of its dilapidated and flood-prone condition.

b) Sabah native court gets RM60 million from federal government

The federal government has agreed to provide a RM60-million allocation to enhance the institution of the Sabah native court, Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Tan Sri Bernard Dompok said today.

c) Bible knowledge can now be taught to Christian students in schools: Dompok

Bible knowledge can now be taught to Christian students in government secondary and mission schools in the country after regular school hours, Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Tan Sri Bernard Dompok said Saturday.

d) Putrajaya doles out RM2.5b to schools as polls loom

The Najib administration allocated RM2.492 billion for schools and education departments throughout the country, in what is seen as a move to woo over civil servants and parents nationwide ahead of a general election expected to be called this year.

The RM2.492 billion in financial aid will be given to 16 state education departments (JPN) and seven education ministry divisions (KPM), which include the Islamic department as well as the Malaysian Teacher’s Education Institute.

It appears that BN is dishing out goodies in its usual pre-election strategies to woo constituents over to their side. They are using their well-tested and tried methods, go the same road and do the same thing because there are those who are happy with whatever they receive sans the bigger picture. Will it work? It really depends on the rakyat! The State elections must be held by July this year according to this report.


3. By-elections a Morale Booster

Note the following trend in the 14 by-elections that have been held since March 2008.

No. 1 Permatang Pauh (Penang) Parliamentary seat
Date: 26th August 2008
Cause: Resignation of incumbent, Datuk Seri Wan Azizah Wan Ismail (PKR)
Winner: Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim (PKR)

No. 2 Kuala Terengganu (Terengganu) Parliamentary seat
Date: 7th January 2009
Cause: death of incumbent Razali Ismail (BN)
Winner: Mohd Abdul Wahid Endut (PAS)

No. 3, 4 and 5 (all three held on the same day)
Date: 7th April 2009
i) Bukit Selambau (Kedah) State seat
Cause: Resignation of incumbent V. Arumugam (PKR)
Winner: S Manikumar (PKR)

ii) Bukit Gantang (Perak) Parliamentary Seat
Cause: Death of incumbent Roslan Shaharum (PAS)
Winner: Datuk Seri Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin (PAS)

iii) Batang Ai (Sarawak) State seat
Cause: Death of incumbent Datuk Dublin Unting (BN)
Winner: Malcolm Mussen Lamoh (Parti Rakyat Sarawak)

No. 6 Penanti (Penang) State seat
Date: 31st May 2009
Cause: Resignation of Mohammad Fairus Khairuddin (PKR)
Winner: Mansor Othman (PKR)

No. 7 Manek Urai (Kelantan) State seat
Date: 14th July 2009
Cause: Death of incumbent Haji Ismail Yaacob (PAS)
Winner: Mohd Fauzi Abdullah (PAS)

No. 8 Permatang Pasir (Penang) State seat
Date: 25th August 2009
Cause: Death of incumbent Datuk Mohd Hamdan Abdul Rahman (PAS)
Winner: Mohd Salleh Man (PAS)

No. 9 Bagan Pinang (Negri Sembilan) State Seat
Date: 11th October 2009
Cause: Death of incumbent Azman Mohammad Noor (BN)
Winner: Tan Sri Mohd. Isa Abdul Samad (BN)

No. 10 Hulu Selangor (Selangor) State seat
Date: 25th April 2010
Cause: death of incumbent Datuk Dr Zainal Abidin Ahmad (PKR)
Winner: P. Kamalanathan (BN)

No. 11 Sibu State seat
Date: 16th May 2010
Cause: death of incumbent Robert Lau Hoi Chew (BN)
Winner: Richard Wong Ho Leng (DAP)

No. 12 and No. 13 (held on the same day)
Date: 4th November 2010

i) Constituency: Galas State seat
Cause: Death of incumbent Chek Hasim bin Sulaima (PAS)
Winner: Abdul Aziz Yusof (BN)

ii) Constituency: Batu Sapi Parliament seat
Cause: Death of incumbent Datuk Edmund Chong (BN/PBS)
Winner: Datin Linda Tsen Thau Lin (BN/PBS)

No. 14 Tenang (Johor) State seat
Date: 30th January 2011
Cause: Death of incumbent Datuk Sulaiman Taha (BN)
Winner: Mohd Azahar Ibrahim (BN), increased majority

No. 15 Merlimau (Melaka) State seat
Date: To be announced by EC but widely speculated to be March 6th 2011
Cause: Death of incumbent Datuk Mohamad Hidhir Abu Hassan (BN) on 20th January 2011

No. 16 Kerdau (Pahang) State seat
Date: To be announced by EC
Cause: Zaharuddin Abu Kassim, 63, from Umno died on 12th February

*Updated at 10.47pm based on news in Malaysiakini HERE.

Possible 17th Port Klang (Selangor) State seat
Date: [yet to be decided by the EC]
Cause: On 19th January 2011 Selangor Speaker Datuk Teng Chang Khim declared the seat vacant because incumbent Badrul Hisham Abdullah has been absent from assembly sittings for 6 months.

You can see that BN won five of the last six by-elections - a real morale booster for the coalition. For sure, BN will win the Merlimau by-election (to be discussed in another post) and if this happens, I foresee there will be an announcement of the next GE.


4. The Egyptian Factor and the power of the Net

We have seen the power of the internet in mobilizing citizens and empowering citizens in Egypt to overthrow Mubarak and they succeeded. Are there those who fear the same thing may happen in Malaysia?

On a local level, we can also see how Anti-mega tower Facebook group grows beyond buildings in The Malaysian Insider. The article said that at four months old, the anti-mega tower Facebook group has moved beyond saying no to Malaysia’s next multi-billion ringgit skyscraper to standing up for public accountability and reforms. The two hottest topics of discussion on its Facebook page currently revolve around Putrajaya’s recent RM6 billion deal to buy six offshore patrol vessels (OPVs); and a repeated attempt to control Internet content — both drawing hundreds of comments in reply.

In another article HERE in TMI, Datuk Seri Najib Razak vowed today not to resort to Internet censorship but will instead engage further with Malaysians when acknowledging that people now use social networking sites to express outrage.

There are many other factors at work and I have only highlighted a few important ones. With such factors and forces at work, it is highly likely that the net GE will be held very soon.

Here are my personal predictions based on my own interpretation and without prejudice to any party and without any intention to bring down any one/party/coalition.


PREDICTION NO. 1

This site shows the list of Parliamentary sessions for this year. The first session is on 7th of March 2011.

Don't forget that the tsunami of 2008 was on 8th of March, 2008.

What if the Merlimau by-election is held on 6th of March 2011 and BN wins? With that, can the Parliament be dissolved on 7th of March? If that happens, could the EC announce the next GE on 8th of March ? This is mere speculation but I am quite sure the BN will win with a bigger margin this time and the ghost of March 8 2008 can be exorcised.

Rationale:

1. February = CNY period and many have been away, not reading the news etc.

March = school holidays and many would be away having booked their vacations earlier.

This would be a good time to hold the GE to the advantage of the BN.

2. The BN has been on a PR campaign to boost their confidence and ground support. Coupled with the increase in voter confidence, it would be a good time to hold the elections.

3. PKR and PR are facing many issues and the coalition is at its weakest point now. Many promises have not been kept and they are fast losing brownie points with the electorate although there are still many hard core PR supporters who still show their unwavering support.

4. Support for BN from East Malaysian voters is likely to be stronger in the light of recent developments and changes.

Why this may NOT happen

1. The PM has stated that the elections will be held later because he wants the rakyat to see the results of his new policies.

2. The authorities may want to wait till the Sarawak elections are held before announcing the GE.


PREDICTION NO. 2

It is more likely that the next GE may be held after July this year for the reasons mentioned above.

Whatever the case, time is really running out and PR must oil their machinery and roll out their blue print for action. It is time to consolidate and to nip all problems in the bud. PR leaders must not simply shoot statements like loose cannons in the air but get together to strategize. PR leaders/party, please consider working hand in hand with the MCLM to ensure greater voter support. It is time to unite!

As for the rest of us, it is time to enlist as foot soldiers and be part of the team to help in whatever party you support.