It is quite evident that BN has the upper hand in the race to the next GE. Support for Pakatan Rakyat is waning due to many reasons including the fast imploding PKR, the implications of the verdict in Anwar's Sodomy II Trial on Anwar and PKR and other factors.
Most of us seem to be either in political fatigue, or going about with a newly-acquired apolitical stance or filled with skepticism. Yet, the fact remains that the next GE is fast approaching, probably sooner than we think.
SIGNS OF TIMES
1. The Decline in Malay support
PR has seen a decline in Malay support since July 2009 where a by-election in the 99 per cent Malay seat of Manek Urai, Kelantan saw a 1,352-vote majority for PAS in their stronghold cut to a wafer-thin 65.
Malays continued to swing towards Barisan Nasional (BN) in subsequent polls from about seven to 10 per cent, allowing the ruling coalition to grab Hulu Selangor and Galas from PR.
The most recent by-election in Tenang, Johor, saw PR fail to make any headway among the mainly Felda Malays as BN swept over 83 per cent of Malay votes to increase its majority by over 1,200 votes.
2. The Public Relations Campaign to boost support in Sarawak
It seems that BN is in overdrive to preserve their fixed deposit in Sarawak. Take a look at the following news items that were aired today.
a) Sarawak's Tutoh Apoh School to Get Muhyiddin's Special Attention
A rural secondary school which is the most flood-prone in the country will get special attention from Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin when the deputy prime minister begins a two-day visit to Sarawak on Thursday.
Muhyiddin, who is also the education minister, is scheduled to attend a briefing at and tour Sekolah Menengah Kebangsaan Tutoh Apoh in Long Panai, Baram, for which the federal government had allocated RM50 million for a new building in view of its dilapidated and flood-prone condition.
b) Sabah native court gets RM60 million from federal government
The federal government has agreed to provide a RM60-million allocation to enhance the institution of the Sabah native court, Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Tan Sri Bernard Dompok said today.
c) Bible knowledge can now be taught to Christian students in schools: Dompok
Bible knowledge can now be taught to Christian students in government secondary and mission schools in the country after regular school hours, Plantation Industries and Commodities Minister Tan Sri Bernard Dompok said Saturday.
d) Putrajaya doles out RM2.5b to schools as polls loom
The Najib administration allocated RM2.492 billion for schools and education departments throughout the country, in what is seen as a move to woo over civil servants and parents nationwide ahead of a general election expected to be called this year.
The RM2.492 billion in financial aid will be given to 16 state education departments (JPN) and seven education ministry divisions (KPM), which include the Islamic department as well as the Malaysian Teacher’s Education Institute.
It appears that BN is dishing out goodies in its usual pre-election strategies to woo constituents over to their side. They are using their well-tested and tried methods, go the same road and do the same thing because there are those who are happy with whatever they receive sans the bigger picture. Will it work? It really depends on the rakyat! The State elections must be held by July this year according to this report.
3. By-elections a Morale Booster
Note the following trend in the 14 by-elections that have been held since March 2008.
No. 1 Permatang Pauh (Penang) Parliamentary seat
Date: 26th August 2008
Cause: Resignation of incumbent, Datuk Seri Wan Azizah Wan Ismail (PKR)
Winner: Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim (PKR)
No. 2 Kuala Terengganu (Terengganu) Parliamentary seat
Date: 7th January 2009
Cause: death of incumbent Razali Ismail (BN)
Winner: Mohd Abdul Wahid Endut (PAS)
No. 3, 4 and 5 (all three held on the same day)
Date: 7th April 2009
i) Bukit Selambau (Kedah) State seat
Cause: Resignation of incumbent V. Arumugam (PKR)
Winner: S Manikumar (PKR)
ii) Bukit Gantang (Perak) Parliamentary Seat
Cause: Death of incumbent Roslan Shaharum (PAS)
Winner: Datuk Seri Mohammad Nizar Jamaluddin (PAS)
iii) Batang Ai (Sarawak) State seat
Cause: Death of incumbent Datuk Dublin Unting (BN)
Winner: Malcolm Mussen Lamoh (Parti Rakyat Sarawak)
No. 6 Penanti (Penang) State seat
Date: 31st May 2009
Cause: Resignation of Mohammad Fairus Khairuddin (PKR)
Winner: Mansor Othman (PKR)
No. 7 Manek Urai (Kelantan) State seat
Date: 14th July 2009
Cause: Death of incumbent Haji Ismail Yaacob (PAS)
Winner: Mohd Fauzi Abdullah (PAS)
No. 8 Permatang Pasir (Penang) State seat
Date: 25th August 2009
Cause: Death of incumbent Datuk Mohd Hamdan Abdul Rahman (PAS)
Winner: Mohd Salleh Man (PAS)
No. 9 Bagan Pinang (Negri Sembilan) State Seat
Date: 11th October 2009
Cause: Death of incumbent Azman Mohammad Noor (BN)
Winner: Tan Sri Mohd. Isa Abdul Samad (BN)
No. 10 Hulu Selangor (Selangor) State seat
Date: 25th April 2010
Cause: death of incumbent Datuk Dr Zainal Abidin Ahmad (PKR)
Winner: P. Kamalanathan (BN)
No. 11 Sibu State seat
Date: 16th May 2010
Cause: death of incumbent Robert Lau Hoi Chew (BN)
Winner: Richard Wong Ho Leng (DAP)
No. 12 and No. 13 (held on the same day)
Date: 4th November 2010
i) Constituency: Galas State seat
Cause: Death of incumbent Chek Hasim bin Sulaima (PAS)
Winner: Abdul Aziz Yusof (BN)
ii) Constituency: Batu Sapi Parliament seat
Cause: Death of incumbent Datuk Edmund Chong (BN/PBS)
Winner: Datin Linda Tsen Thau Lin (BN/PBS)
No. 14 Tenang (Johor) State seat
Date: 30th January 2011
Cause: Death of incumbent Datuk Sulaiman Taha (BN)
Winner: Mohd Azahar Ibrahim (BN), increased majority
No. 15 Merlimau (Melaka) State seat
Date: To be announced by EC but widely speculated to be March 6th 2011
Cause: Death of incumbent Datuk Mohamad Hidhir Abu Hassan (BN) on 20th January 2011
No. 16 Kerdau (Pahang) State seat
Date: To be announced by EC
Cause: Zaharuddin Abu Kassim, 63, from Umno died on 12th February
*Updated at 10.47pm based on news in Malaysiakini HERE.
Possible 17th Port Klang (Selangor) State seat
Date: [yet to be decided by the EC]
Cause: On 19th January 2011 Selangor Speaker Datuk Teng Chang Khim declared the seat vacant because incumbent Badrul Hisham Abdullah has been absent from assembly sittings for 6 months.
You can see that BN won five of the last six by-elections - a real morale booster for the coalition. For sure, BN will win the Merlimau by-election (to be discussed in another post) and if this happens, I foresee there will be an announcement of the next GE.
4. The Egyptian Factor and the power of the Net
We have seen the power of the internet in mobilizing citizens and empowering citizens in Egypt to overthrow Mubarak and they succeeded. Are there those who fear the same thing may happen in Malaysia?
On a local level, we can also see how Anti-mega tower Facebook group grows beyond buildings in The Malaysian Insider. The article said that at four months old, the anti-mega tower Facebook group has moved beyond saying no to Malaysia’s next multi-billion ringgit skyscraper to standing up for public accountability and reforms. The two hottest topics of discussion on its Facebook page currently revolve around Putrajaya’s recent RM6 billion deal to buy six offshore patrol vessels (OPVs); and a repeated attempt to control Internet content — both drawing hundreds of comments in reply.
In another article HERE in TMI, Datuk Seri Najib Razak vowed today not to resort to Internet censorship but will instead engage further with Malaysians when acknowledging that people now use social networking sites to express outrage.
There are many other factors at work and I have only highlighted a few important ones. With such factors and forces at work, it is highly likely that the net GE will be held very soon.
Here are my personal predictions based on my own interpretation and without prejudice to any party and without any intention to bring down any one/party/coalition.
PREDICTION NO. 1
This site shows the list of Parliamentary sessions for this year. The first session is on 7th of March 2011.
Don't forget that the tsunami of 2008 was on 8th of March, 2008.
What if the Merlimau by-election is held on 6th of March 2011 and BN wins? With that, can the Parliament be dissolved on 7th of March? If that happens, could the EC announce the next GE on 8th of March ? This is mere speculation but I am quite sure the BN will win with a bigger margin this time and the ghost of March 8 2008 can be exorcised.
Rationale:
1. February = CNY period and many have been away, not reading the news etc.
March = school holidays and many would be away having booked their vacations earlier.
This would be a good time to hold the GE to the advantage of the BN.
2. The BN has been on a PR campaign to boost their confidence and ground support. Coupled with the increase in voter confidence, it would be a good time to hold the elections.
3. PKR and PR are facing many issues and the coalition is at its weakest point now. Many promises have not been kept and they are fast losing brownie points with the electorate although there are still many hard core PR supporters who still show their unwavering support.
4. Support for BN from East Malaysian voters is likely to be stronger in the light of recent developments and changes.
Why this may NOT happen
1. The PM has stated that the elections will be held later because he wants the rakyat to see the results of his new policies.
2. The authorities may want to wait till the Sarawak elections are held before announcing the GE.
PREDICTION NO. 2
It is more likely that the next GE may be held after July this year for the reasons mentioned above.
Whatever the case, time is really running out and PR must oil their machinery and roll out their blue print for action. It is time to consolidate and to nip all problems in the bud. PR leaders must not simply shoot statements like loose cannons in the air but get together to strategize. PR leaders/party, please consider working hand in hand with the MCLM to ensure greater voter support. It is time to unite!
As for the rest of us, it is time to enlist as foot soldiers and be part of the team to help in whatever party you support.
