During the by-election campaign period, the DAP and PAS still had something to do but the PKR was completely marginalised, with nothing to do. PKR de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim could only use his charisma and charm at ceramahs, but couldn’t make headways to penetrate the kampung and reclamation areas.
by Lim Sue Goan at mySinChew.com via The Malaysian Insider
The Barisan Nasional (BN) is apparently catching up from behind in the electoral marathon, and is making an eight-to-eight drawn game. The Pakatan Rakyat, meanwhile, seems to be losing its stamina in the race to Putrajaya, allowing the BN to overtake it.
Since the November year last, the Pakatan Rakyat has lost five by-elections. It surely is not just luck that the BN vote majorities have gradually increased, compared to the March 2008 general election.
Take the Kerdau state by-election as an example. The BN gained 159 more majority votes compared to the 2004 general election, proving that Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak has regained full support in his Pahang home turf.
After the polling results for the Merlimau and Kerdau state by-elections were announced, the DAP and MCA started to argue again over whether Chinese votes have returned to the BN. Meanwhile, PAS claimed that it has received more reclamation area votes.
During the by-election campaign period, the DAP and PAS still had something to do but the PKR was completely marginalised, with nothing to do. PKR de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim could only use his charisma and charm at ceramahs, but couldn’t make headways to penetrate the kampung and reclamation areas.
PAS has suffered four of the five defeated by-elections. It is indeed a bitter blow to the party. It is disadvantageous to PAS in defending Kelantan.
Coincidentally, the Kota Baru Municipal Council had taken action on business premises selling lottery tickets before the Kerdau by-election polling day. Was PAS trying to play up religious issues to fight for Muslim votes?
Why didn’t the Kelantan state government ban the sale of lottery tickets in the past? PAS knew that such actions taken before the by-election would be attacked by the MCA and the polling results might be affected. PAS might have panicked and expected that they could retrieve some votes by playing with religious issues. However, it has outsmarted itself and scared away some Chinese voters.
The DAP has been restrained itself before the polling day. And it did not strongly criticise the Kelantan state government this time. The DAP has always maintained the principles of secular polity, but it should no longer shield their mistakes to avoid losing its own credibility.
The 16 by-elections have roughly marked off the BN turf and the Pakatan Rakyat sphere of influence. Southern, eastern peninsula and the rural areas are still the bastions of the BN, while the northern peninsula and urban areas are the strongholds of the Pakatan Rakyat.
As Malaysia pursues the constituency system election, a seat will belong to the winner even if he gains only one-vote majority. Hence, the situation is very disadvantageous to the Pakatan Rakyat. Sarawak has 31 parliamentary seats, Johor 26, Sabah 25, Pahang 14, Terengganu and Negri Sembilan have eight each, and Malacca has six.
Their combined total of 118 is more than half of the total 222 parliamentary seats. As long as the BN can gain two-thirds of seats in these states in the next general election, it will then have 79 seats. Together with seats in other states, it is not hard for the BN to retain control of Putrajaya.
The Pakatan Rakyat is facing a major problem, namely when its internal contradictions continue, and its civil organisation forces have been eroded.
Would the Pakatan Rakyat still be able to face voters of various races as a team? Under the BN 1 Malaysia concept, how would the Pakatan Rakyat implement its multi-racial and multi-religious concept?
Three years after the 2008 political tsunami, the Pakatan Rakyat has now come to a crossroad.
